• Save


I solicited questions about UASF in my last article, and I am here to deliver.

From Ansel Linder:

  • Save
Game theory has a lot of unknowns

How are industry players supposed to know?

Hopefully by paying attention and gaming out scenarios carefully. This depends quite a bit on what hash rate UASF BIP148 shows it has and right now, the only pool showing such stats is SlushPool. I imagine that will factor largely.

What are things people can know for certain?

Hard question. Game theory is often more art than science and you have to act with incomplete information all the time. What you “know for certain” completely depends on who you trust. Miners may not believe UASF will actually go through with the soft fork, for example and Users may not believe Miners would attack them.

From Kyle Riecker:

  • Save
It does sound unpleasant.

Why can’t we wait?

We very well may not have to wait for the Consensus 2017 agreement. The Segwit2x project released their development schedule and it looks like it may very well lock in Segwit before August 1.

  • Save

From Jose Toriello:

  • Save
Thanks, Jose.

Do I see a way out?

I see many ways that Bitcoin stays as one chain but I’m not going to assign probabilities to them until we get closer to August 1.

Is there another peaceful way to upgrade?

Absolutely. All of them require the miners and the community to agree, though, and that’s been the biggest problem so far.

Will BIP148 be taken off the table if support is not high?

It certainly looks like it from

  • Save

From Jordan McHale:

  • Save
  • Save

Is BIP148 going live if it doesn’t have enough support? Is there a way to back out?

See above.

Why isn’t this uncertainty hurting the bitcoin price?

It’s hard to know what the bitcoin price would be if UASF wasn’t being scheduled for August 1, so it’s hard to know whether it’s been priced in or not. There does seem to be a pretty strong bull market and rumors about Mt. Gox’s insolvency didn’t seem to deter the last strong bull run until the actual insolvency happened. That may be the case here.



Comments are closed

Share via
Copy link
Powered by Social Snap