Is the Bull Market starting? Bitcoin Tech Talk Issue #200

Bitcoin winter has been long and pretty stressful. Getting to the heights that we did back in December 2017 will do that. We’ve endured two drops into the $3000’s and multiple teases like the jump to $13,000 last summer. But is the bull market really starting?

When I started this newsletter back in 2017, the stock-to-flow analysis didn’t exist. Market movements seemed to be based on media coverage, Bitcoin evangelism and fiat excess. We knew back then that bull markets do indeed happen, but why or when it happened eluded us.

PlanB’s seminal article based on the stock-to-flow ratio popularized by Saifedean Ammous’s book changed all that. We finally had an explanation for why the bull markets seemed to happen when they did. The supply shock caused by the halvening forces the price upward.